Re: The start of the third world war ?

[Jeffrey Goldberg <{$news}$@goldmark.org>]

On Sep 11, 2001 Spooky <steveb13@hotmail.com> wrote
   in <9nm1jl$ie0$1@newsg1.svr.pol.co.uk>:

> "Jeffrey Goldberg" <{$news}$@goldmark.org> wrote:

> > If it's war it will be one-sided.  And if it isn't going to be one-sided
> > then there won't be war.
> >
>
> I wonder if that is what the Russians thought as they invaded Afghanistan??

Indeed.  If there is a war to unseat the Taliban, then there is no way
that the US can do it alone.  Russia with a common border and little
regard for civilian deaths couldn't win.  The US without a friendly base
near by and far more concern about civilian loss and loss of its own
forces just doesn't have a chance alone.

The US could probably probably twist the arm of Pakistan enough to stop
most resupply coming in that way and maybe even air space use, but I just
don't see a real war happening without substantial Russian support for
access and bases.  Tajikistan could be bought, but it would have to be a
real committment of a medium term presence there to build stability in
that unfortunate country.

Basically, the US has no strong stable good friends in the right place to
be able to unseat the Taliban.

It is because of this that I hope that I am wrong and it isn't bin Laden,
since if it is, the US will not be able to do more than drop a few bombs,
which will hurt people and strengthen the Taliban.

-j

-- 
Jeffrey Goldberg
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